After a spectacular rise in recent months, US long-term yields have reached their highest levels in decades. Supposedly ultra-safe Treasury bonds are on track to lose money for the third year in a row, declining around 40% over that period. A record-breaking pace of rate hikes by the Fed to counter rapidly rising inflation and an unprecedented rate of government deficit has unsettled the markets and pushed long yields higher. The vexing question now is where long yields go from here: a rapid decline, a plateau, or yet another peak to climb?
