Portefeuillebeheerder update

To the latest Market Commentary

Ethna-DEFENSIV

State: 30.04.2025

Key points at a glance

• Germany: Rising yields pause.
• The ECB did it again with another rate cut in April.
• Consumers and the German economy: Rising optimism despite tariffs.

Market developments and performance

In March, Germany's new fiscal policy, which included a special fund for infrastructure projects and the abolition of the debt brake on defence spending, led to a significant rise in yields on long-term German government bonds. In April, the formation of a new government in Germany brought political decision-making to a temporary halt. This led to another significant decline in yields. Yields on current 10-year German government bonds fell back to 2.5%, matching their level at the beginning of March. The drastic tariff announcements by the US administration and the resulting losses on global stock markets naturally contributed to this development. This trend pushed the monthly performance of Ethna-DEFENSIV well into positive territory. The performance since the beginning of the year is now back above 1% (T-class).

ECB and Inflation

The ECB continued to cut interest rates in April. The deposit rate is now 2.25%. From the central bank's perspective, most indicators point to a sustained decline in inflation towards the 2% target. Although current wage growth is still too high, recent wage settlements point to a significant slowdown. The ECB also points to the growth- and inflation-dampening effects of US tariff policy. The latest inflation figures for April confirm the inflation path described by the ECB. Inflation in Germany has slowed to 2.2%.

But is the outlook really bad?

This is counterbalanced by rising consumer confidence (GfK) in Germany. Despite the uncertainties, consumers are once again more optimistic about the future, supported by a continuing solid labour market, rising wages and falling inflation. Spending programmes in Germany will also provide additional demand over the course of the year. Industrial confidence, as measured by the IFO index, is also slowly rising again from a low level. Economic growth in the eurozone has picked up again. This has been driven in particular by increased consumer spending.

Outlook and strategy

The Ethna-DEFENSIV is benefiting from its solid interest income and continues to seek steady returns with low price volatility. With a duration of 6, we also try to capture some price gains and benefit from the return to normalisation of the yield curve. Thanks to the ECB's rate cuts and virtually unchanged long-term yields, the longer the time to maturity, the higher the yield. Normality has returned, the inverted yield curve is history and will remain so for the time being. We continue to focus on the high quality of our bond portfolio, which is reflected in the excellent average rating of all bonds.

Ethna-AKTIV

State: 30.04.2025

Key points at a glance

• Ethna-AKTIV (T) lost 0.67% in April.
• The bond allocation was reduced to 51.3%. The average rating is A- to A.
• A LONG position in Bund futures increased the modified duration from 6.9 to 8.2.
• The net equity allocation was reduced by a further 8% to 30.7%. In addition to the 25% exposure to US equities, 2.5% was added to the Eurostoxx 50 and Topix.
• The portfolio's currency exposure is currently 11.4% (5.6% GBP, 1.6% USD, 2.5% Yen and 1.7% CHF).
  
  

Market developments and performance

April started with a bang. On 2 April, the US President made it clear to his trading partners that his plans were no April Fool's joke when he released specific tariff rates. The bad news of much higher than expected tariffs hit an already struggling market. As a result, both equity and interest rate markets have been on a rollercoaster ride, reacting sensitively to each announcement and each step in the negotiations. It should be noted that the current phase of the negotiations is not going as smoothly as the Americans had hoped. On the contrary, no real progress can be reported, and in relation to the Chinese, the confrontation has escalated from a trade war to a currency war, in which Far Eastern treasury holdings are being used as a weapon. In addition to increasing planning uncertainty and a definite dampening effect on global economic growth, this aggressive American negotiating tactic led to a liquidation of US assets and, as a result, to a comparatively rapid devaluation of the US dollar. We are not yet ready to fundamentally question US exceptionalism, but we are well aware, given Donald Trump's previous term in office, that this process of reaching a deal will drag on for months, if not quarters. It should also be clear that everything will ultimately boil down to a confrontation between the two largest economic powers. In summary, despite the slight easing in the second half of the month, macroeconomic uncertainty remains high, which is also reflected in our more cautious positioning.

Equity strategy

The downturn at the beginning of the month did not catch us unprepared, but the scale of it was indeed surprising. In anticipation of further consolidation within a broad trading range, we have somewhat globalised the equity portfolio, reducing net exposure to around 30%. The focus remains on US equities, but the portfolio has been broadened with a 2.5% exposure to the Eurostoxx 50 and Topix.

Bond strategy

The cash ratio was increased to 9.6% as a risk management measure by selling some long-term USD bonds. This reduced the bond allocation from 61.5% to 51.3%. The portfolio's modified duration is 6.9 and is increased to 8.2 through the duration overlay. Although there was little change in the overall duration, the implementation was switched from US interest rate futures to Bund futures during the month - fortunately in good time. At the height of the equity market correction, US interest rate futures did exactly what they were supposed to do in terms of diversification, but with the Chinese likely to show strength, US interest rates have since risen disproportionately. Despite this, gains from the duration overlay were extended by 34 basis points over the month to 1.31% for 2025.

Currency strategy

The decision to hedge the US dollar risk has once again paid off. The greenback's weakness has continued and is unlikely to end anytime soon given the power struggle between the US and its largest creditor. We are sticking to our strategy of completely hedging US currency risk. The GPB position already in place last month was supplemented by 2.5% Yen, which we have long considered undervalued and which clearly has potential for appreciation against the backdrop of diverging inflation dynamics and central bank policies.

Ethna-DYNAMISCH

State: 30.04.2025

Key points at a glance

• The month was dominated by the tariff shock of the US ‘Liberation Day’ on 2 April.
• More conciliatory gestures from Donald Trump and more moderate rhetoric in the aftermath helped to limit the losses over the course of the month but were unable to offset them.
• The equity portfolio of around 70% was slightly hedged to around 60% at the end of the month.
• The remaining 30% of the fund is currently held in cash and cash equivalent bonds.
• The clear and simple structure provides clarity and room for manoeuvre in persistently turbulent waters.
  
  

Current market situation

If US President Donald Trump had not deliberately chosen 2 April instead of 1 April as the date for announcing the long-awaited reciprocal tariffs, known as ‘Liberation Day’, the announcement would probably have been dismissed as an April Fool's joke. Not only did the level of the announced tariffs exceed the wildest expectations, but the logic and mathematical reasoning behind them also boggled the minds of many economists. The capital markets reacted accordingly with alarm.

The US benchmark index, the S&P 500, subsequently recorded a two-day loss of almost 11%, which was of historic proportions. Outside the US, the price declines were equally significant. Perhaps it was precisely this clarity in the market reaction that prompted the US President to suspend the tariffs for 90 days just one week later. The S&P 500 responded with a jump of almost 10% – also historic and the largest daily gain since the global financial crisis of 2008.

How responsibly the most powerful man in the world uses this superpower bestowed upon him is a question everyone must answer for themselves. What is certain is that the development of entire economies and, even more so, the prices of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies are currently heavily dependent on a single person.

At the end of January, three months after the election, we wrote here that the markets seemed to have adjusted to 'the predictability of this unpredictability [...]. This is especially true of the constant threats of tariffs, which in most cases should end in a deal. These are usually deals that are still acceptable to the trading partner, but which put the US in a better position than before.'

This remains our main scenario, even if the unpredictability is impressive at the moment. The biggest risk at the moment is that Donald Trump will overreach himself. He is effectively negotiating with every country in the world at the same time. This is not just about specific tariffs, but about bilateral trade relations in general and the monetary value of the power of the United States for global security. However, even the United States' immediate negotiating partners are not entirely clear about its objectives, as EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic admitted after initial talks.

Over the course of the month, the US President's rhetoric became more moderate overall (with the exception of China) and individual tariff exemptions - based on Donald Trump's 'instincts' - are conceivable. This helped to stem the decline in equity prices towards the end of the month. Nevertheless, the overall risk/reward ratio has deteriorated somewhat and uncertainty remains very high on all sides.

Equity strategy

At Ethna-DYNAMISCH, we were admittedly surprised by the extent of the tariff announcement. We had previously assumed that much of this had already been anticipated and priced in. As a result, there were no explicit hedges in the equity portfolio at the time. In the aftermath, we remained relatively calm in the face of high volatility. Taking derivatives into account, the net equity exposure fluctuated within a range of +/- 10% around the equity portfolio, which accounted for around 70% of the fund. Interim gains and losses from derivatives offset each other following the rise in prices towards the end of the month, with the fund ending April with a partially hedged equity allocation of around 60%.

At the individual stock level, we sold our stake in General Mills when it once again demonstrated its defensive characteristics at the beginning of the month. At the same time, operational challenges have steadily increased recently, meaning that we unfortunately no longer see our previous investment case as valid. At the end of the month, we added ASML from the Netherlands to the portfolio. With a market capitalisation of 230 billion EUR, the global market leader for lithography systems is one of the key players in the semiconductor industry. After several years of very high valuations, the combination of cyclical weakness in the sector and the smouldering trade war has led to an attractive entry price here. Due to the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the semiconductor industry, the position size is initially only 1.5%.

Bond strategy

Outside of the equity portfolio, we sold all US government bonds in April. Political uncertainties currently outweigh the fears of recession, particularly for our preferred longer maturities. Despite the adverse rise in yields since the beginning of the year, we have been able to achieve a performance contribution of +0.5% with bonds to date through active portfolio management.

Currency strategy

In addition, as the US dollar continued to weaken, we increased the fund's relatively low USD exposure countercyclically from 20% to 25%.

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